Delhi:The monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala on June 4, It is expected to reach Andaman & Nicobar islands by May 22 and, when it reaches Kerala, it will also make a simultaneous onset over parts of Northeast India. “All the four regions are going to witness less than normal rainfall Central India, the country’s rice bowl, is expected to see the lowest rainfall in the region with seasonal rains at 91% of its Long Period Average. “Odisha and Chhattisgarh are likely to be rainiest of all, while Vidarbha, Marathwada, West Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat will be poorer than normal,” the forecast added. Last month ‘below normal’ rains to the tune of 93% (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of the long period average (LPA), of 89 cm.
The India Meteorological Department is expected to make public its own assessment of the monsoon onset over Kerala on Wednesday.
The agency’s forecasters say that the monsoon over Kerala would likely be “delayed” beyond the normal date of June 1. “There’s likely to be a delay… the El Nino is one of the factors. Moreover temperatures in the Bay of Bengal are still quite high (a factor that delays the monsoon onset over Kerala,” said a meteorologist, to be identified.
Last month, monsoon rains in India are likely to be “normal” this year. However, this assessment also attributed a significant probability for rains falling in the ‘below normal’ category.Monsoon rainfall this year, according to the agency, is forecast to be 96% .